Nearly 50 million people face severe starvation as an intensifying El Niño event collides with volatile global food systems strained by geopolitical conflict, according to a report from the UN World Food Programme (WFP).

El Niño, the naturally occurring warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is steadily strengthening and is expected to peak between September and December this year. Meteorologists warn it could become one of the most powerful on record, with ecological disruption lasting well into 2027 and damaging multiple harvest cycles.

The climate phenomenon disrupts weather patterns globally, triggering simultaneous droughts, heatwaves, and catastrophic flooding. These weather shocks devastate crops, kill livestock and destroy critical agricultural infrastructure, hitting smallholder farmers and pastoralists who depend on natural rainfall hardest. As agricultural yields drop, food prices surge, leaving essential staples unaffordable for the world’s most vulnerable populations.

The environmental crisis is compounded by economic pressures, particularly soaring energy and fertiliser costs linked to ongoing geopolitical instability, including war in the Middle East and severe shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. With global fertiliser prices up by more than 30 per cent and costs spiking sharply, agricultural production costs have soared, forcing many farmers to reduce planting.

WFP stressed the variety of El Niño’s impact: “Some countries are already experiencing below-average rainfall, flooding and unusually hot temperatures, while others are expected to face deteriorating conditions during upcoming planting seasons and harvests.”

The El Niño is expected to increase rainfall in the southern United States, parts of Peru, Ecuador and East Africa. Conversely, it is set to decrease rainfall and raise drought risks in Australia, Indonesia, parts of Southeast Asia, southern Africa, Central America, and northern Brazil.

Latin America and the Caribbean could see one of the sharpest rises in food insecurity, with more than 16 million people affected. Central America is projected to have the largest proportional increase of 83.1 per cent of all areas analysed in the report.

East and Southern Africa also face substantial risks, particularly where upcoming rainy seasons are critical for food production. More than 18 million people could see their food security deteriorate, a 26 per cent increase. Southern African countries are particularly exposed because many households depend heavily on rain-fed subsistence agriculture.

Asia and the Pacific could see significant impacts in several already vulnerable countries, with an estimated 8.2 million additional people facing acute food insecurity. West and Central Africa are also at risk, with food insecurity projected to increase by 12 per cent, affecting nearly 6 million additional people.

To mitigate the disaster, the WFP is deploying “Anticipatory Action” schemes across more than 50 high-risk countries. This includes delivering financial and logistical support to enable families to protect their crops, secure livestock, and manage water resources. This, they hope, will mean families will not resort to desperate measures like selling essential assets or skipping meals.

In Central America’s Dry Corridor, over 376,000 people have already received cash assistance, food supplies, and weather warnings ahead of the primary planting season, with emergency support expanding to another 32,000 individuals ahead of the secondary harvest cycle.

Humanitarian experts stress that proactive intervention is vastly more cost-effective than standard crisis response. Every US dollar spent on early action yields up to seven dollars in avoided economic losses, protecting communities before they fall deeper into systemic crisis.

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