Marine scientists are calling for the urgent reclassification of the extinction threat level faced by the emperor penguin, after a change in approach to assessing the conservation status of the species and the environmental status of its Antarctic habitat suggest it could be lost within a lifetime.

Calculating the unique life history and critical dependence of emperor penguins on the Antarctic environment, scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) are calling for a threat level update, suggesting the species now meets a criteria ranging from Vulnerable to Endangered under the guidelines established by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

This would represent a ‘significant and urgent change’ from their current classification of Near Threatened to highlight the increased risk emperor penguins face due to anticipated changes to their home in the Antarctic.

The conclusions from the new study – Living with Uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for conservation policy, published in the journal Biological Conservation – have significant implications for the IUCN Red List reassessment of emperor penguins.

“This is the first study to integrate natural variability in physical and biological processes and employ a wide range of Earth system and ecological models to account for numerous sources of uncertainty in projecting assessments of future population trajectories,” said Stephanie Jenouvrier, lead author on the paper and a senior scientist and seabird ecologist at WHOI.

“Improved methods for accounting for uncertainties are urgently needed to strengthen assessments of extinction and inform conservation efforts in an uncertain world.”

The study applies what WHOI scientists have called a Multi-Model Large Ensemble (MMLE) framework. It’s essentially a collection of earth system simulations allowing researchers to better understand the range of potential environmental outcomes and then assess all the uncertainties associated with those environmental projections.

For this study, the team combined different types of data to create three distinct ecological models of emperor penguin populations: decades of detailed observations of individual penguins; long-term times series of chick and adult numbers; and ten years of satellite images tracking the size of 50 colonies.

They also included information on how colonies move and change over time, drawn from genetic and population data.

It all marks a significant advance in forecasting ecological change, potentially setting a new standard for assessing species extinction risks under various scenarios including extreme environmental events and long-term change.

“Emperor penguins are vital indicators of ecosystem health in the Antarctic, they also help inform us about wider changes in the earth system. Therefore, harnessing robust models that increase our understanding about uncertainty and risk are vital, if we are to better conserve and protect this and other species,” said Professor Phil Trathan, an author on the paper and former head of conservation biology at the British Antarctic Survey. 

“Ultimately, humans depend on the natural world, so developing better projections of the future earth system are essential for ensuring human health and wellbeing. The tools used in this study should now help us all.” 

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) plays a critical role in informing conservation strategies for species like the emperor penguin through scientific assessments and the Red List framework. These assessments can be used to influence conservation policies within international governance frameworks, such as the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting which serves as a key forum for decision-making on Antarctic conservation.

Assessments made in this study strengthen the case for establishing Marine Protected Areas across the region, particularly in the Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea, which could serve as a crucial place of refuge for emperor penguins.

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