A landmark global study has identified more than 165,000 square kilometres of coral reefs across 71 countries with the strongest potential to survive a warming world – tripling previous estimates and offering a rare note of hope for one of the ocean’s most threatened ecosystems.

The research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Macquarie University, with support from the Bloomberg Ocean Initiative, marks a significant advance in understanding which reefs may endure as global temperatures continue to rise. It forms the basis of a new civil society campaign, Our Reefs, Our Future, calling on governments to prioritise the protection of these reefs from local, immediate threats.

“This is a significant breakthrough in our understanding of coral reef resilience,” said Dr. Emily Darling, Director of Coral Conservation at WCS and co-author of the study. “Coral reefs are often framed as ecosystems beyond saving, but this research shows that there is a global set of reefs that have the potential to survive and recover from the climate crisis. We now have a critical opportunity to mobilise the necessary action to protect these reefs in meaningful partnership with local stakeholders and national governments.”

Building on the original 50 Reefs assessment published in 2018, the new study – Machine-learning and prioritization models reveal climate refugia for coral reefs into 2050 – expands coverage to 30 additional countries and 54 additional territories. 

Its model, trained on decades of real-world coral reef observations, produces a map 10,000 times more detailed than any that preceded it.

The research identifies three distinct pathways through which reefs may persist in a warming ocean. Avoidance refugia are located in rare oceanic cool spots, shielded from the worst thermal stress. Resistance refugia are home to corals that have developed adaptations allowing them to withstand bleaching events that would devastate less resilient systems. Recovery refugia are reefs capable of rapid ecological rebound following disturbance – rebuilding coral cover and function faster than surrounding areas.

More than half of all identified climate-resilient reefs are concentrated in just five countries: Australia, the Bahamas, Cuba, Indonesia and the Philippines. Significant new areas have also been identified across the Caribbean, including Belize, Panama and the Turks and Caicos Islands – regions overlooked in earlier assessments.

“For years, the world thought we were watching the final decline of coral reef ecosystems,” said Dr. Stacy Jupiter, Executive Director of the Global Marine Program at WCS. “Instead, we now know there are far more reefs with the potential to survive and recover from climate change than previously understood. More than half of these climate-resilient reefs are concentrated in just five countries. That creates an extraordinary opportunity for governments to protect ecosystems that could help regenerate reefs globally, while safeguarding food security, coastlines, jobs and billions of dollars for their own economies.”

Nearly one billion people depend on coral reefs for food security, livelihoods and coastal protection, yet only around 28% of identified priority reefs currently fall within protected or conserved areas – leaving more than 119,000km² outside existing conservation frameworks.

Kyle J A Zawada, the study’s lead author from Macquarie University, said: “The world’s coral reefs are facing an unprecedented crisis, with the risk of irreversible changes to coral ecosystems. But there is still hope. Our work identifies pockets of resilience where reefs may withstand and recover from disturbance. 

“By safeguarding these resilient reefs, we can help push back against declines driven by local human pressures and climate change. These reefs could act as living seed banks for wider ecosystem recovery, helping to ensure that future generations inherit living, functioning coral reefs and not just degraded versions of what they once were.”

To make the data actionable, SkyTruth has partnered with WCS to display the findings through the 30×30 Progress Tracker, a free interactive platform mapping global progress toward protecting 30% of the planet by 2030. “We can’t protect what we can’t see,” said SkyTruth CEO John Amos. “Our platform transforms complex coral reef science into a practical tool for action. Now, policymakers and communities can identify climate-resilient reefs globally for the first time, with the precision needed to support real-world conservation planning and investment. Better maps lead to better decisions to protect reefs and people alike.”

The Our Reefs, Our Future campaign – led by WCS, WWF and The Nature Conservancy – calls on governments to integrate climate-resilient reefs into marine protected area networks and national 30×30 commitments, while mobilising investment to address local pressures including pollution, destructive fishing and poorly managed coastal development.

“We now know more than ever about which coral reefs are most likely to survive climate change – but identifying them is only the first step,” said Petra MacGowan, Director of Coral Reef Partnerships at The Nature Conservancy. “Without urgent investment in management, sustainable financing, and partnerships with the communities who depend on these reefs, they will remain at risk. The science is there, the tools are working, and partners are ready to act. What we need now is speed and scale.”

Dr. Gabby Ahmadia, Vice President of Seascapes and Science at WWF US, has suggested that crucially, the human dimension to this development cannot be separated from the ecological one. 

“For millions of people, coral reefs are not just an ecosystem; they are food, income, protection and identity. As governments move to protect climate-resilient reefs, Indigenous Peoples, local communities and reef-dependent populations must be at the centre of decisions and investment. Protecting coral reefs is ultimately about protecting people and nature together – because the world above depends on the world below.”

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