The promise of economic prosperity from deep-sea mining does not stand up to scrutiny, according to a new independent analysis that finds the proposed industry is likely to destroy economic value and cost governments more than it generates in public revenue.

Case Not Proven: The Economics of Deep-Sea Mining was produced by Koinon Consulting and commissioned by the Deep-Sea Conservation Coalition (DSCC), Oceans North, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Oceano Azul Foundation and Dona Bertarelli Philanthropy. It stress-tests the industry’s own economic projections against the risks associated with major frontier resource projects.

Using data and projections submitted by The Metals Company’s (TMC) NORI-D and TOML projects, the analysis finds that in more than eight out of ten realistic scenarios, deep-sea mining destroys value, even before environmental and other social costs are accounted for. There is a 61% chance that investors never get their money back. While TMC’s projections suggest deep-sea mining could generate billions in value, the stress-test produces a median outcome of a $5 billion loss.

“Deep-sea mining doesn’t stand up as an attractive investment. The returns are too low for the technical, operational, environmental, price, demand and social risks involved,” said Johnny West, report author and Principal at Koinon Consulting. “What my analysis shows is that the industry’s underlying business model does not hold up when its own projections are tested against realistic risks.”

“The deep-sea mining industry has spent years promising governments that it will deliver economic prosperity. This independent analysis shows those promises do not hold up,” said Sofia Tsenikli, DSCC Global Campaign Director. “Deep-sea mining loses money in most realistic scenarios, even before the costs of environmental damage are considered. It’s bad business and bad for the planet. A moratorium is the economically responsible choice.”

The economic risks extend beyond the companies seeking to mine the seabed. The report finds that deep-sea mining could leave governments worse off by reducing revenues from existing terrestrial mining. These losses would fall primarily on countries that depend on terrestrial mineral production, notably Indonesia, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gabon, among others.

Sponsoring states would also take on significant legal and environmental risks while receiving little financial benefit. In most scenarios, they receive no corporate income tax from deep-sea mining projects.

“This study confirms that deep-sea mining remains economically unattractive from a commercial investment perspective, with the risks of cost overruns making an already weak business case even less compelling,” said Torsten Thiele, Founder, Global Ocean Trust and IUCN WCPA Sustainable Finance Specialist Group.

“The findings also highlight that the risks extend beyond mining companies to sponsoring States and countries dependent on terrestrial mining. This evidence should be fully considered by ISA Members when making decisions on behalf of humankind as a whole.”

“This report shows that there is nothing to gain from deep seabed mining. Not only would it be environmentally devastating, but it would cause financial losses for many countries and communities,” said Nicole Zanesco, International Policy Advisor, Oceans North. “Canada is one of the countries set to lose revenue each year if deep seabed mining goes ahead. Saying no to deep seabed mining is the best business decision Canada can make. Save money, save the ocean, and save something for future generations.”

The analysis does not account for the potentially significant costs of environmental damage, or wider impacts on fisheries, livelihoods and ocean ecosystems. These would likely add further to the economic cost of deep-sea mining.

With the industry failing to demonstrate a clear public benefit even before those costs are considered, the authors say the findings reinforce the case for governments to support a moratorium.

“This independent report confirms what many experts and scholars have long suspected and cautioned: the narrative spread by proponents on the promised economic benefits of deep-sea mining is a myth. Far from being an economic necessity, deep-sea mining is essentially a gamble where humankind stands to lose a lot more than any speculative gains. This report confirms that the only responsible pathway is to now press pause on deep-sea mining and to turn our attention to protection and truly valuing our natural capital,” said Pradeep Singh, Ocean Governance Expert at Oceano Azul Foundation.

“What distinguishes this report is its method: rather than constructing an independent model, it stress-tests the proponent’s own figures and still finds the financial case does not hold. That conclusion is consistent with what rigorous economic analysis across different methodologies and scales has been finding. Piece by piece, the picture is becoming harder to ignore. On its own economic merits, the case for deep-sea mining does not stand,” said Raphaëlle Flint, Senior Program Manager, Dona Bertarelli Philanthropy.

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