Dozens of species of seafaring birds, including the Antipodean albatross, the Cape gannet, and the Galapagos penguin are hurtling towards extinction within the next 100 years, a new study from the University of Reading has warned, indicating that we could lose as much as 12% of our marine and coastal bird species by the 2100s.

The findings are part of a wider study that has warned that on the current trajectory of human-caused impact, including habitat loss, hunting, and climate change, we are currently on track to lose over 500 bird species forever by the next century.

The study – published this week in Nature Ecology & Evolution – reveals that this number is three times higher than all bird extinctions recorded since the year 1500. What’s more, the extinction of vulnerable birds such as the bare-necked umbrellabird, the helmeted hornbill, and the yellow-bellied sunbird-asity would “greatly reduce the variety of bird shapes and sizes worldwide, harming ecosystems that depend on unique species for their vital functions.”

Kerry Stewart, lead author of the research from the University of Reading has told Oceanographic Magazine that around 12% (plus or minus 1%) are predicted to become extinct within the next 100 years should human impact continue to impact natural populations. This is compared to the 5% of bird species predicted to go extinct across all habitats. 

“Many birds are already so threatened that reducing human impacts alone won’t save them. These species need special recovery programmes, like breeding projects and habitat restoration, just to survive,” said Stewart. 

“We face a bird extinction crisis unprecedented in modern times. We need immediate action to reduce human threats across habitats and targeted rescue programmes for the most unique and endangered species.”

Aquatic predators are among the most under threat of extinction, an eventuality that will have sweeping negative implications for marine ecosystems the world over. Marine birds are an essential component of both marine and terrestrial ecosystems due to their role in transporting nutrients between the land and the sea. 

To make their conclusions, researchers examined nearly 10,000 bird species using data from the IUCN Red List to predict the extinction risk each species faces based on the threats they face. The study found that large-bodied birds are more vulnerable to hunting and climate change, while birds with broad wings suffer more from habitat loss. 

The research also identified which conservation actions will best preserve both the number of bird species and their ecological functions.

“Reducing the impact of human threats such as habitat loss, climate change, and invasive species is essential for the conservation of species that are at risk of extinction, and for ensuring that species that currently have healthy and stable populations do not go into decline in future,” said Stewart. Nevertheless, many species are now so threatened that reducing human impacts alone will not be enough, but additional measures, such as captive breeding and translocations will be needed.

“There have been many successful conservation projects such as these in the past, so these species are not doomed to go extinct, but we must act fast to ensure their survival.”

Stopping the destruction of habitats would save the most birds overall. However, reducing hunting and preventing accidental deaths would save birds with more unusual features, which are especially important for ecosystem health. 

Professor Manuela Gonzalez-Suarez, senior author of the study at the University of Reading, said; “Stopping threats is not enough, as many as 250-350 species will require complementary conservation measures, such as breeding programmes and habitat restoration, if they are to survive the next century.

“Prioritising conservation programmes for just 100 of the most unusual threatened birds could save 68% of the variety in bird shapes and sizes. This approach could help to keep ecosystems healthy.”

The team behind the paper hope that its published results will help with targeted and more efficient methods of conservation of these threatened species. Using the best available evidence – through schemes such as Conservation Evidence – is the most effective way to build an efficient conservation programme for a species.

“It may also be necessary to prioritise species which are most at risk, so we ensure they are saved before it’s too late,” said Stewart. “In our paper, we find that saving the most unique threatened species in terms of their size and shape could conserve the range of ecological roles within communities, which could support ecosystem function and resilience for years to come.”

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