A new government assessment has found that UK fishing quotas exceeded scientific recommendations in 58% of cases in 2026 — continuing a six-year pattern that campaigners say is pushing fish populations towards the point of no return.

Each year, independent scientists study the health of fish populations in UK waters and recommend the maximum amount of fish that can safely be caught. The UK government then sets the official catch limits – in theory, based on that scientific advice. And each year, a government body called Cefas publishes a report checking whether the two actually match up.

In 2026, in more than half of all cases, they did not. The government allowed fishermen to catch more fish than scientists said was safe – for the sixth year in a row.

The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) has published its annual assessment of UK fisheries catch limits for 2026, evaluating whether government decisions on fishing quotas align with the scientific advice provided by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

For 2026, 58% of catch limits have been set above scientific advice. It is the latest instalment in a pattern that has remained stubbornly consistent since 2021, when the figure stood at 66%. In no single year over that period have catch limits aligned with scientific recommendations more than half the time.

The assessment arrives amid some of the starkest warnings yet from fisheries scientists. ICES has recommended zero catch limits for several cod stocks, citing critically low population levels – a signal that some of the UK’s most commercially important fish are in a worryingly precarious state.

For Blue Marine Foundation, which took the UK government to court over its fisheries management decisions in 2025, the findings are as damning as they are familiar.

“It is beyond shocking that the UK government continues to treat the marine environment as an afterthought. They have had countless opportunities to improve the sustainability of our fisheries, yet they repeatedly choose inaction,” said Jonny Hughes, Fisheries Policy Lead at Blue Marine Foundation.

The human and ecological cost of that inaction, Hughes argues, is being written into the fish populations themselves. The contrast between two haddock stocks tells that story.

“North Sea haddock shows that when you follow the science, you get more fish and more money, with this stock having increased by 437% over the past decade. Celtic Sea haddock shows what happens when you don’t. The difference isn’t geography, it’s management,” he said.

The concerns raised by scientists and campaigners are echoed in the latest consumer guidance from the Marine Conservation Society, which has updated its Good Fish Guide in line with new evidence on stock health.

The charity warns that growing pressure is now affecting some of the UK’s most familiar seafood choices, including cod and langoustine – commonly sold as scampi. Several UK cod populations have been in decline since 2015 due to a combination of overfishing, climate-driven warming seas and wider ecosystem pressures, with the latest guidance now showing no recommended options for UK-caught cod.

In contrast, better-managed fisheries such as those in Iceland remain more sustainable, while alternatives like European hake and certain North Sea or West of Scotland haddock offer more resilient choices for consumers.

The updated guidance also highlights mounting sustainability concerns for langoustine, where some fisheries have been downgraded after catches exceeded scientific advice and populations declined. Lower-impact methods such as pot or creel fishing remain among the few green-rated options, while new alternatives are emerging, including UK-farmed king prawns produced in closed systems with reduced environmental impact.

The charity has also red-rated mackerel, advising consumers to avoid it entirely, underscoring the broader strain on UK seafood. With the UK importing around 80% of the fish it consumes, the organisation is calling for stronger domestic fisheries management to rebuild stocks and reduce reliance on imports, alongside greater uptake of well-managed local options such as seabass, plaice and farmed mussels or trout.

Ministers are legally required to set catch limits using the best available scientific evidence, with the aim of ensuring fish populations can recover and remain sustainable. That the gap between advice and policy has persisted – and in some years widened – raises serious questions about how seriously that obligation is being taken.

Those questions are now being asked at the highest levels of parliamentary scrutiny.

“The latest catch limit figure from Cefas is disappointing, and we must do far more to ensure decisions are guided by scientific evidence. Overfishing needs to be far higher up the political agenda,” said Toby Perkins.

Blue Marine is now calling on ministers to set 2027 catch limits in full alignment with scientific advice and to take decisive action on overfishing before the window to act closes entirely.

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