An El Niño could form in the Pacific Ocean later this year, according to weather agencies and climate scientists. The phenomenon could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027, increasing the risk of rising sea levels to continents like Africa.

The periodic climate pattern is characterised by the warming of surface waters in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. It is associated with weaker trade winds – the east-to-west winds across the tropical pacific – and more severe global weather changes, like floods and droughts, and marine heatwaves.

The 2023–2024 El Niño alone contributed 2.34 centimeters to global sea-level rise in just a single two-year period. Dr Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at the US-based independent Berkeley Earth group, said that the 2023-2024 El Nino had likely added about 0.12C global temperatures in 2024. 

New research has shown that Africa is particularly vulnerable to the impact of the warming oceans, and the 2023-2024 El Niño triggered record-breaking sea level spikes along the continent’s coastlines.

A team used satellite data, computer models and statistical methods to examine 32 years (1993 – 2024) of sea level rise. 

They found that between 2009 and 2024, the continent experienced a 73% increase in sea-level rise. Acute weather events, like the El Niño contributed to this spike – and accounted for 19% of the total increase over the years.

The intense marine heat waves of the El Niño also disrupted many fisheries, and their coastal economies.

Both the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have said climate models are forecasting the El Nino – but have cautioned that the predictions come with uncertainties – and said there was a particularly long lead time on this prediction.

“If El Niño develops later this year it will likely peak around November-January and primarily impact 2027 global surface temperatures, rather than 2026,” Dr Hausfather told The Guardian.

Amid this new research showing the link between El Nino’s events accelerating global sea rises, the need for urgent mitigation strategies for coastal communities – particularly for the 38 African countries that share the continent’s extensive 18,950 mile coastline.

Financial constraints and sparse tide gauges often limit Africa’s monitoring and response capacity along its coastline.

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