Sea temperatures in most areas across the globe are warming at an alarming rate. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, the average sea surface temperature over the extrapolar ocean has increased by approximately 0.6°C over the last four decades and about 0.9°C since the pre-industrial era.

Around the UK – particularly in the southern North Sea – sea temperatures are also warming fast so that researchers have begun to call the North Atlantic one of the world’s marine ‘hot spots’.

To determine the impact of these ‘hot spots’, the UK government has now asked researchers to take a closer look at the implications for the British food supply.

Fishers across the UK are already travelling further north to catch the nation’s favourites – cod, haddock and salmon – and the UK’s warming oceans have attracted new arrivals such as anchovy, bluefin tuna, sardines, squid and red mullet.

To better understand the impact of changing fish species and the increasing acidity of the seas, amongst other factors, a new project – called ‘Forecasting Tipping points In Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Responses’ (TiMBER) and led by the University of East Anglia (UEA) – has now received funding by a grant from the UK Government’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA). 

The collaboration between UEA, Cefas, the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), the Institute of Computing for Climate Science (ICCS) at the University of Cambridge, and the Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS) is now looking closer at the consequences of climate tipping points which could be devastating, potentially exposing half a billion people globally to annual flooding events, and triggering severe repercussions for biodiversity, food security and agriculture. 

TiMBER will focus on the North Atlantic, which is known to be vulnerable to physical climate tipping points. While little is known about tipping points in marine ecosystems, they are expected to have profound socio-economic implications for the UK, especially for the fishing industry.

Tipping points in marine ecosystems have occurred in the past and are expected in the future, for example in response to industrialised cod overfishing in the North West Atlantic in the 1980s, or in response to changing climate conditions during the geological past.

TiMBER’s lead R&D Creator Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science at UEA, said: “Given the serious implications of tipping points, our research is both timely and necessary and we welcome the opportunity provided by this grant. By helping the UK anticipate, prepare for and respond to marine changes, TiMBER will support sustainable and resilient fisheries.

“Here we bring together a world-class team of researchers from different disciplines including experienced policy advisors, to develop the tools and understanding necessary to assess the risks of tipping points in marine ecosystems and their consequences and opportunities for the UK.

“Tackling the challenges of climate change requires novel approaches and thinking differently about what might be possible. This is what we aim to do through TiMBER.”

The new research hopes to lead to the creation of an early warning system capable of equipping us with the information, understanding and time we need to accelerate proactive climate adaptation and mitigation. TiMBER will also quantify the implications of tipping points on the ocean’s uptake of carbon emissions from human activities.

Professor Julian Blow, Pro-Vice-Chancellor Research and Innovation at UEA, said: “I’m delighted that our expertise in climate science research has been recognised with the awarding of this grant, in collaboration with key partners who are also leaders in their respective fields.

“Working together, this fundamental project aims to contribute significant insights that will hopefully underpin much-needed action on climate adaptation and mitigation.”

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